Global & Disaster Medicine

New study: What yellow fever patients are likely to die?

Lancet

“……Therefore, 76 patients with confirmed yellow fever virus infection, based on detectable yellow fever virus RNA in blood (74 patients) or yellow fever virus confirmed only at the autopsy report (two patients), were included in our analysis. 27 (36%) of 76 patients died during the 60 day period after hospital admission. We generated 14 complete yellow fever virus genomes from the first 15 viral load-detectable samples. The genomes belonged to a single monophyletic clade of the South America I genotype, sub-genotype E. Older age, male sex, higher leukocyte and neutrophil counts, higher alanine aminotransferase, aspartate transaminase (AST), bilirubin, and creatinine, prolonged prothrombin time, and higher yellow fever virus RNA plasma viral load were associated with higher mortality. In a multivariate regression model, older age, elevated neutrophil count, increased AST, and higher viral load remained independently associated with death. All 11 (100%) patients with neutrophil counts of 4000 cells per mL or greater and viral loads of 5·1 log 10 copies/mL or greater died (95% CI 72–100), compared with only three (11%) of 27 (95% CI 2–29) among patients with neutrophil counts of less than 4000 cells per mL and viral loads of less than 5·1 log 10 copies/mL. ….”


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