Global & Disaster Medicine

New Zealand, Australia and Iceland could act as island refuges to save humanity from extinction in the event of a catastrophic global pandemic and researchers have ranked 20 island nations which could act as refuges from which large-scale technological society could be rebuilt.

UOtago

“……The researchers say that for such a strategy to succeed, preparations must be made ahead of time. They suggest that New Zealand consider investing in resiliency measures and rehearse the rapid introduction of border controls...…”

In the journal:

Risk Analysis DOI: 10.1111/risa.13398

The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics

Matt Boyd and Nick Wilson

Abstract:  “In this conceptual article with illustrative data, we suggest that it is useful to rank island na-

tions as potential refuges for ensuring long-term human survival in the face of catastrophic

pandemics (or other relevant existential threats). Prioritization could identify the several is-

land nations that are most suitable for targeting social and political preparations and further

investment in resiliency. We outline a prioritization methodology and as an initial demon-

stration, we then provide example rankings by considering 20 sovereign island states (all with

populations greater than 250,000 and no land borders). Results describe each nation in nine

resilience-relevant domains covering location, population, resources, and society according

to published data. The results indicate that the most suitable island nations for refuge status

are Australia, followed closely by New Zealand, and then Iceland, with other nations all well

behind (including the relatively high-income ones of Malta and Japan). Nevertheless, some

key contextual factors remain relatively unexplored. These include the capacity of the juris-

diction to rapidly close its borders when the emerging threat was first detected elsewhere,

and whether or not large subnational islands should be the preferred focus for refuge design

(e.g., the Australian state of Tasmania, the island of Hokkaido in Japan, or the South Island

of New Zealand). Overall, this work provides conceptual thinking with some initial exam-

ple analysis. Further research could refine the selection of metrics, how best to weight the

relevant domains, and how the populations of prioritized island nations view their nation’s

selection as a potential refuge for human survival.”

AUSTRALIA

NEW ZEALAND

ICELAND

MALTA

JAPAN

CAPE VERDE

BAHAMAS

TRINIDAD/TOBAGO

BARBADOS

MADAGASCAR

CUBA

MAURITIUS

FIJI

MALDIVES

SRI LANKA

COMOROS

SOLOMON ISLANDS

JAMAICA

PHILIPPINES

VANUATU


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