Archive for March, 2017
Induced earthquakes within the central and eastern United States
Friday, March 3rd, 2017Overview
Within the central and eastern United States, the number of earthquakes has increased dramatically over the past few years. Between the years 1973–2008, there was an average of 21 earthquakes of magnitude three and larger in the central and eastern United States. This rate jumped to an average of 99 M3+ earthquakes per year in 2009–2013, and the rate continues to rise. In 2014, alone, there were 659 M3 and larger earthquakes. Most of these earthquakes are in the magnitude 3–4 range, large enough to have been felt by many people, yet small enough to rarely cause damage. There were reports of damage from some of the larger events, including the M5.6 Prague, Oklahoma earthquake and the M5.3 Trinidad, Colorado earthquake.
This increase in earthquakes prompts two important questions:
- Are they natural, or man-made?
- What should be done in the future as we address the causes and consequences of these events to reduce associated risks?
Increasing Rate of Earthquakes Beginning in 2009
Mount Etna roared to life this week on the island of Sicily, sending red-hot fountains of molten rock and ash high into the air and down the slopes of Europe’s largest and most active volcano.
Thursday, March 2nd, 2017
Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic
Thursday, March 2nd, 2017Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic
The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic was established on 22 August 2011 by the Human Rights Council through resolution S-17/1 adopted at its 17th special session with a mandate to investigate all alleged violations of international human rights law since March 2011 in the Syrian Arab Republic.
The Commission was also tasked to establish the facts and circumstances that may amount to such violations and of the crimes perpetrated and, where possible, to identify those responsible with a view of ensuring that perpetrators of violations, including those that may constitute crimes against humanity, are held accountable.
Aleppo aerial campaign deliberately targeted hospitals and humanitarian convoy amounting to war crimes, while armed groups’ indiscriminate shelling terrorised civilians – UN Commission
Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic
GENEVA (1 March 2017) – The brutal tactics used by the parties to the conflict in Syria as they engaged in the decisive battle for Aleppo city between July and December 2016 resulted in unparalleled suffering for Syrian men, women and children and amount to war crimes, according to a UN report released today.
In their report based on 291 interviews, including with residents of Aleppo city, and the review of satellite imagery, photographs, videos and medical records, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic documents daily Syrian and Russian airstrikes against eastern Aleppo over several months which steadily destroyed vital civilian infrastructure resulting in disastrous consequences for the civilian population.
By using brutal siege tactics reminiscent of medieval warfare to force surrender, Government forces and their allies prevented the civilian population of eastern Aleppo city from accessing food and basic supplies while relentless airstrikes pounded the city for months, deliberately targeting hospitals and clinics, killing and maiming civilians, and reducing eastern Aleppo to rubble, the report states.
By late November 2016 when pro-Government forces on the ground took control over eastern Aleppo, no functioning hospitals or other medical facilities remained. The intentional targeting of these medical facilities amounts to war crimes, the Commission concludes.
In the report, mandated by the Human Rights Council at its 25th special session in October 2016, the three-person Commission also notes how armed groups indiscriminately shelled civilian-inhabited areas of western Aleppo city with improvised weapons, causing many civilian casualties. A number of these attacks were carried out without a clear military target and had no other purpose than to terrorise the civilian population.
“The violence in Aleppo documented in our report should focus the international community on the continued, cynical disregard for the laws of war by the warring parties in Syria. The deliberate targeting of civilians has resulted in the immense loss of human life, including hundreds of children”, said Commission Chair Paulo Pinheiro.
In one of the most horrific attacks investigated by the Commission, Syrian Air Force deliberately targeted a United Nations/Syrian Arab Red Crescent humanitarian convoy in Orum al-Kubra, Aleppo countryside. The attack killed 14 aid workers, destroyed 17 trucks carrying aid supplies, and led to the suspension of all humanitarian aid in the Syrian Arab Republic, further aggravating the unspeakable suffering of Syrian civilians.
“Under no circumstances can humanitarian aid workers be targeted. A deliberate attack against them such as the one that took place in Orum al-Kubra amounts to war crimes and those responsible must be held accountable for their actions”, said Commissioner Carla del Ponte.
The repeated bombardments, which also destroyed schools, orphanages, markets, and residential homes, effectively made civilian life impossible and precipitated surrender. The report further stresses that Syrian aircraft used chlorine – a chemical agent prohibited under international law – against the civilian population of eastern Aleppo, causing significant physical and psychological harm to hundreds of civilians.
As it became clear that eastern Aleppo would be taken by pro-Government forces, all parties continued to commit brutal and widespread violations, the report states. In some districts, armed groups shot at civilians to prevent them from leaving, effectively using them as human shields. Pro-government forces on the ground, composed mostly of Syrian and foreign militias, executed hors de combat fighters and perceived opposition supporters, including family members of fighters. Others were arrested and their whereabouts remain unknown.
The report also notes that the eastern Aleppo evacuation agreement forced thousands of civilians – despite a lack of military necessity or deference to the choice of affected individuals – to move to Government-controlled western Aleppo whilst others were taken to Idlib where they are once more living under bombardments. In line with the precedents of Moadamyia and Darayya, this agreement confirms the regrettable trend whereby parties to the conflict in Syria use civilian populations as bargaining chips for political purposes.
“Some of these agreements amount to forced displacement. It is imperative that the parties refrain from similar future agreements and provide the conditions for the safe return of those who wish to go back to their homes in eastern Aleppo”, said Commissioner Karen AbuZayd.
Background
The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, which comprises Mr. Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro (Chair), Ms. Carla Del Ponte, and Ms. Karen Koning AbuZayd has been mandated by the United Nations Human Rights Council to investigate and record all violations of international law since March 2011 in the Syrian Arab Republic.
The full report and supporting documentation can be found on the Human Rights Council web page dedicated to the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic: http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/IICISyria/Pages/IndependentInternationalCommission.aspx
The report is scheduled to be presented on 14 March during an interactive dialogue at the 34th session of the Human Rights Council.
– See more at: http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=21256&LangID=E#sthash.l48EGFJw.dpuf
The earthquake risk for Oklahoma and southern Kansas is expected to remain significant in 2017, threatening 3 million people with seismic events that can produce damaging tremors.
Thursday, March 2nd, 2017The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude (M) ≥4 and 3 M≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma.
The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production.
Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.
New USGS Maps Identify Potential Ground-Shaking Hazards in 2017
New USGS maps identify potential ground-shaking hazards in 2017 from both human-induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S.
New USGS maps identify potential ground-shaking hazards in 2017 from both human-induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S., known as the CEUS. This is the second consecutive year both types of hazards are forecasted, as previous USGS maps only identified hazards from natural earthquakes. This research was published today in Seismological Research Letters.
Approximately 3.5 million people live and work in areas of the CEUS with significant potential for damaging shaking from induced seismicity in 2017. The majority of this population is in Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Research also shows that an additional half million people in the CEUS face a significant chance of damage from natural earthquakes in 2017, which brings the total number of people at high risk from both natural and human-induced earthquakes to about 4 million.
“The good news is that the overall seismic hazard for this year is lower than in the 2016 forecast, but despite this decrease, there is still a significant likelihood for damaging ground shaking in the CEUS in the year ahead,” said Mark Petersen, chief of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project.
The 2017 forecast decreased compared to last year because fewer felt earthquakes occurred in 2016 than in 2015. This may be due to a decrease in wastewater injection resulting from regulatory actions and/or from a decrease in oil and gas production due to lower prices.
Despite the decrease in the overall number of earthquakes in 2016, Oklahoma experienced the largest earthquake ever recorded in the state as well as the greatest number of large earthquakes compared to any prior year. Furthermore, the chance of damage from induced earthquakes will continue to fluctuate depending on policy and industry decisions, Petersen noted.
“The forecast for induced and natural earthquakes in 2017 is hundreds of times higher than before induced seismicity rates rapidly increased around 2008,” said Petersen. “Millions still face a significant chance of experiencing damaging earthquakes, and this could increase or decrease with industry practices, which are difficult to anticipate.”
Important Note: In the west, USGS scientists have focused on the hazard from natural earthquakes. Induced earthquakes have been observed in California as well, but they don’t significantly change the regional hazard level, which is already high due to frequent natural earthquakes.
What are Induced Earthquakes?
Induced earthquakes are triggered by human activities, with wastewater disposal being the primary cause in many areas of the CEUS. Wastewater from oil and gas operations can be disposed of by injecting it into deep underground wells. Injected fluids cause pressure changes that can weaken a fault and therefore bring it closer to failure. Most injection wells do not trigger felt earthquakes, suggesting that a combination of many factors contribute to such events.
“By understanding the relationship between earthquakes and wastewater injection, informed decisions can be made on processes such as controlling the volumes and rates of wastewater injected and determining which wells are most susceptible to inducing earthquakes,” said Petersen.
Many questions have been raised about hydraulic fracturing—commonly referred to as “fracking”—and more information can be found by reading common questions.
States with High Hazard
The maps indicate an especially high ground-shaking hazard in five areas of the CEUS in 2017. These same areas were identified in the 2016 forecast.
Induced seismicity poses the highest hazard in two areas, which are Oklahoma/southern Kansas and the Colorado/New Mexico area known as the Raton Basin. In those areas, there is a significant chance that damaging levels of ground motion will occur in 2017.
Enhanced hazard from induced seismicity was also found in Texas and north Arkansas, but the levels are significantly lower in these regions than that forecasted for 2016. While earthquakes are still a concern, scientists did not observe significant activity in the past year, so the forecasted hazard is lower in 2017.
There is also a high hazard for natural earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The NMSZ is the only one of the five identified areas that has not experienced induced earthquake activity. The NMSZ had a higher rate of natural earthquakes in the past three years, leading to a slightly higher hazard potential compared to previous years in portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee.
“The 2016 forecast was quite accurate in assessing hazardous areas, especially in Oklahoma,” said Petersen. “Significant damage was experienced in Oklahoma during the past year as was forecasted in the 2016 model. However, the significantly decreased number of earthquakes in north Texas and Arkansas was not expected, and this was likely due to a decline in injection activity.”
“There is specific concern in parts of the central U.S. since the forecasted hazard levels are higher than what is considered in current building codes, which only incorporate natural earthquakes,” said Petersen.
People living in areas of higher earthquake hazard should learn how to be prepared for earthquakes. Guidance can be found through FEMA’s Ready Campaign.
Spotlight on Oklahoma
Between 1980 and 2000, Oklahoma averaged about two earthquakes greater than or equal to magnitude 2.7 per year. However, this number jumped to about 2,500 in 2014, 4,000 in 2015 and 2,500 in 2016. The decline in 2016 may be due in part to injection restrictions implemented by the state officials. Of the earthquakes last year, 21 were greater than magnitude 4.0 and three were greater than magnitude 5.0.
USGS research considers a magnitude 2.7 earthquake to be the level at which ground shaking can be felt. An earthquake of magnitude 4.0 or greater can cause minor or more significant damage.
The forecasted chance of damaging ground shaking in central Oklahoma is similar to that of natural earthquakes in high-hazard areas of California.
“Most of the damage we forecast will be cracking of plaster or unreinforced masonry. However, stronger ground shaking could also occur in some areas, which could cause more significant damage,” said Petersen.
Protecting Communities
The new report is valuable for making informed decisions to reduce the nation’s vulnerability and providing safety information to those who may be at risk from strong shaking. For example, the 2016 forecast has been used by engineers to evaluate earthquake safety of buildings, bridges, pipelines and other important structures. Risk modelers have used data in developing new risk assessments, which can be used to better understand potential impacts on insurance premiums. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has used the information to provide guidance on updating their safety assessments of selected facilities.
Continuing collaborations between regulators, industry, and scientists will be important toward reducing hazard, improving future forecasts, and enhancing preparedness.
Central versus Western U.S.
In recent years, the CEUS has experienced a significant increase in induced earthquakes. Therefore, in the 2017 and 2016 forecasts, scientists distinguish between human-induced and natural seismicity only for the CEUS. Scientists also used a historical catalog of seismic events dating back to the 1700s, putting a strong emphasis on earthquakes that occurred during the last 2 years.
Future research, noted Petersen, could take a more detailed look at induced seismicity in the west, including in California at The Geysers, Brawley and small areas of the Los Angeles Basin.
Distinguishing Between Induced and Natural Earthquakes
To determine whether particular clusters of earthquakes were natural or induced, the USGS relied on published literature and discussions with state officials and the scientific and earthquake engineering community. Scientists looked at factors such as whether an earthquake occurred near a wastewater disposal well and whether the well was active during the time the earthquakes occurred. If so, it was classified as an induced event.
One-Year Outlook
The one-year outlook is chosen because induced earthquake activity can increase or decrease with time and is subject to commercial and policy decisions that could change rapidly. The 2016 and 2017 forecasts employ identical methodologies; the only difference is that the 2017 forecast includes an updated earthquake catalog with 2016 events. This allows for a direct comparison from one year to the next.
In contrast, the USGS National Seismic Hazard Map assesses natural earthquake hazards and uses a 50-year forecast. That timeframe was chosen because that is the average lifetime of a building, and such information is essential to engineering design and the development of building codes.
USGS Science
The USGS is the only federal agency with responsibility for recording and reporting earthquake activity nationwide and assessing seismic hazard. These maps are part of USGS contributions to the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, which is a congressionally established partnership of four federal agencies with the purpose of reducing risks to life and property in the United States that result from earthquakes.
Alleged war crimes in Aleppo: A U.N. panel said the evacuation of eastern Aleppo was one of many war crimes committed by those fighting for control of the city.
Thursday, March 2nd, 2017- Often difficult to know whether specific strikes were carried out by Russia or the Syrian government.
- Syrian warplanes targeted hospitals on at least two occasions
- A humanitarian aid convoy was attacked on Sept. 19.
- Evidence was found that the Syrian government had used prohibited cluster munitions.
- Both sides carried out indiscriminate attacks in densely populated civilian areas
- Rebels launched imprecise mortar attacks on government-held neighborhoods.
- Some rebels shot civilians to prevent them from leaving and used them as human shields
- Government forces forcibly conscripted 200 men
- Syria’s air force used chemical weapons — chlorine gas — against residential areas.
Markers of Disease Severity in Patients with Spanish Influenza in the Japanese Armed Forces, 1919–1920
Wednesday, March 1st, 2017Kudo K, Manabe T, Izumi S, Takasaki J, Fujikura Y, Kawana A, et al. Markers of disease severity in patients with Spanish influenza in the Japanese Armed Forces, 1919–1920. Emerg Infect Dis. 2017 Apr [date cited]. http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2304.152097
“…..The first and second waves of the Spanish influenza pandemic in Japan affected ≈21 million persons (257,000 deaths) and 2 million persons (127,000 deaths), respectively. ……….
We analyzed medical charts preserved at the former First Army Hospital in Tokyo, Japan, and other affiliated hospitals. We previously described the clinical features of Spanish influenza among patients who were hospitalized at several study sites (2). Recently, additional records of patients affected by the second wave of disease during 1919–1920 were discovered, and these patients were the subjects of this study.
A total of 470 patients hospitalized during January 1919–January 1920 and diagnosed with Spanish influenza (as “epidemic cold” or “pneumonia due to epidemic cold”) fit the criteria for inclusion in the study. All patients were male soldiers or officers in the military of Japan. We collected data concerning patients’ general background and physical assessments, including lung sounds and fever charts. Among all patients, 8 (2%) died. We divided the patients who survived (n = 462, 98%) into 3 groups on the basis of hospitalization length: <10 days (28%), 11–20 days (34%), and >21 days (36%); we compared variables among the 3 groups. High fever was defined as a body temperature >38°C, and diphasic fever was defined as a body temperature >38°C after the initial fever had decreased to <37.5°C. Data on adventitious lung sounds collected during the hospitalization period were classified (on the basis of international classifications) as continuous, discontinuous, bronchial on the chest wall, and friction rub sounds (3). The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Of the 8 patients who died, 6 died within 10 days of hospital admission. Median length of hospitalization was 7 days for nonsurvivors and 16 days for survivors. The proportion of patients with audible adventitious lung sounds was significantly higher among those hospitalized for >21 days and among those who did not survive (Table 1(https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/23/4/15-2097-t1)). Factors associated with the length of hospitalization in survivors (identified by using a Cox hazard proportional model) included diphasic fever, >6 days of continuing high fever from admission, a maximum respiration rate >26 breaths/min, and adventitious discontinuous lung sounds (Table 2(https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/23/4/15-2097-t2))……”
