NWS

000
WTNT31 KNHC 072352
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

…NATE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.0N 89.2W
ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The
Hurricane Watch for Lake Maurepas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzKr0Yk1taQ

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the
center of Hurricane Nate is now making landfall at the mouth of the
Mississippi River, near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 89.2 West.
Nate is now moving toward the north and a little slower, near 20 mph
(31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later
tonight, followed by a motion toward the northeast on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nate will make a second landfall
along the coast of Mississippi tonight. After landfall, the center
of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama,
and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night.

Aircraft reconnaissance data and Doppler radar velocity data
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening now appears unlikely
before Nate’s center reaches the Mississippi coast during the next
few hours. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, with Nate
becoming a tropical depression by Sunday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. A sustained wind
of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) were recently
reported by NOAA buoy 42040 to the east of the mouth of the
Mississippi River.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00
inches).

A water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was
recently reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Pilots
Station East, Southwest Pass, Louisiana.

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already
spreading onshore. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…7
to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay…6 to 9 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line…4 to 6
ft
Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to
4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida…2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida…1 to 3 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

East of the Mississippi River

from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the
western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi
through Sunday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.