Archive for September, 2018
NASA: How temperatures are changing the force of Florence
Thursday, September 13th, 2018
As millions of people along the Atlantic Coast of the United States board up windows and evacuate before Hurricane Florence makes landfall, remote sensing researchers and forecasters are monitoring the environmental conditions fueling the powerful storm. They are assembling a suite of satellite images and data products that could aid storm preparedness and recovery efforts by federal and local partners.
As Florence approaches land, two key factors will help govern the severity of the storm: ocean temperatures and wind shear, the difference in wind speeds at upper and lower parts of a storm. Warm ocean water and low wind shear are required to sustain and intensify a hurricane.
The map above shows sea surface temperatures on September 11, 2018. Meteorologists generally agree that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) should be above 27.8°C (82°F) to sustain and intensify hurricanes (although there are some exceptions). In Florence’s case, National Hurricane Center forecasters expect the storm to pass over water with temperatures well above that threshold. The data for the map were compiled by Coral Reef Watch, which blends observations from the Suomi NPP, MTSAT, Meteosat, and GOES satellites and computer models. Information about the storm track and winds come from the National Hurricane Center.
Florence will be traveling over water that is anomalously warm for this time of year, noted Marangelly Fuentes, a NASA atmospheric scientist who has been tracking the storm with models maintained by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). As the storm approaches land, sea surface temperatures off of the Carolinas were between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than usual.
However, the warm coastal water is not the only reason that the Carolinas may be hit by one of the strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall at such a northerly latitude in this region.“While it is common to see storms this strong or even stronger over the ocean at this latitude,” said Gary Partyka, another atmospheric scientist with GMAO. “What set this situation apart was an unusually strong blocking high north of the storm that directed it towards the United States. Usually with storms at this latitude large-scale circulation patterns drive them to the north and east, well away from the coast.”
Forecasters have warned that life-threatening storm surges, catastrophic flooding, damaging winds, and dangerous rip currents will likely occur along the coastlines of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia when the storm arrives late on September 13. There is growing concern that the presence of another atmospheric blocking ridge in the Mid-Atlantic region may cause the storm to stall and possibly move south and west toward Georgia, potentially extending the amount of time it remains over warm water and increasing the rainfall totals.
With forecasters expecting prodigious amounts of rain, NASA’s Disasters Program has mobilized a team that will use NASA sensors to monitor soil moisture, soil saturation, and rainfall rates. During and after the storm, this team will produce and disseminate information about where satellites observe floods and other effects of the storm. For more awesome, frightening views of Hurricane Florence, see this story.
NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens, using sea surface temperature data from Coral Reef Watch and wind probabilities from the National Hurricane Center. Story by Adam Voiland.
20,000 pallets of bottled water left untouched in storm-ravaged Puerto Rico
Thursday, September 13th, 2018“…..The emergency supplies were brought in by FEMA in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, which smashed the island and left its residents without power, without roofs and without running water.
FEMA & Florence: 9/12/18
Thursday, September 13th, 2018Situation Hurricane Florence expected to make landfall along the East Coast Friday
Preparations/Response FEMA HQ
• NRCC at Level I, 24/7 with all LNOs and ESFs
• National IMAT East-1 deployed to NC
• Region V & VIII IMATs deployed to DC to pre-stage
• Region I IMAT deployed to VA
• MERS assets deployed
• FSAs established at Ft A.P. Hill, VA and Martinsburg, WV
Region IV
• RRCC at Level II, 24/7
• LNOs and DCO/DCE deployed to NC and SC
• IMAT 1 deployed to NC
• IMAT 2 deployed to SC
• Regional HLT deployed to NHC North Carolina (FEMA-3401-EM-NC): • EOC at Full Activation;
Statewide State of Emergency declared
• Mandatory evacuations in effect for select areas; 50k evacuated out of 200k anticipated o Possible shortage of bus service due to World Equestrian Games
• US&R: Red IST, IN-TF1
• Shelters: 5 open with 258 occupants (ARC Midnight Shelter Count as of 5:46 a.m. EDT) South Carolina (FEMA-3400-EM-SC):
• EOC at Full Activation; Statewide State of Emergency declared
• Several public schools and government offices will be closed today
• Mandatory evacuations in effect for 6 counties, all other orders rescinded o Highway 521 (evacuation route) has construction projects and is down to one lane
• Shelters: 31 open with 1,385 occupants (ARC Midnight Shelter Count as of 5:46 a.m. EDT)
• US&R: FL-TF1&2, PA-TF1
• Tennessee EOC at Monitoring (to support EMAC requests)
Region III
• RRCC at Level II (day shift only) with all ESFs, DOD USCG, DHS IP, ARC; will go to Level III (night shift only) today
• LNO deployed to NRCC
• IMAT (Type III) deploying to MD
• IMAT (Type III) deployed to VA Virginia (FEMA-3403-EM-VA):
• EOC at Partial Activation; State of Emergency declared; National Guard activated
• Emergency Declaration approved September 11
• Mandatory evacuation in effect for Zone A (19 counties) in the Hampton Roads area
• Planning to open 3 state shelters by September 13 State Response
• MD EOC at Partial Activation; State of Emergency declared
• WV EOC at Full Activation
• DE EOC at Monitoring
• DC EOC at Monitoring; Mayor declared a state of emergency
• PA EOC returned to Normal Operations
Region II • NJ EOC at Monitor
USDA: Safeguarding Food, Pets, Livestock before Hurricane Florence
Thursday, September 13th, 2018USDA Urges Local Residents to Safeguard Food, Pets, Livestock before Hurricane Florence
USDA Office of Communications sent this bulletin at 09/12/2018 10:44 AM EDT
You are subscribed to USDA Office of Communications.
Release No. 0182.18
Contact: USDA Press
Email: press@oc.usda.gov
USDA Urges Local Residents to Safeguard Food, Pets, Livestock before Hurricane Florence
WASHINGTON, Sept. 12, 2018 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reminds rural communities, farmers and ranchers, families and small businesses in the path of Hurricane Florence that USDA has programs that provide assistance in the wake of disasters. USDA staff in the regional, state and county offices that stand ready and eager to help.
“If we know anything about American farmers, it’s that they can handle adversity. Even so, USDA is ready to help with the resources they need to be able to weather storms and recover from damages,” U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said. “As hurricanes approach, we have USDA personnel in counties throughout the nation, standing by to assist in any way possible.”
Hurricane Florence currently is forecast to make landfall Saturday morning near the border between North Carolina and South Carolina, and then travel westward through South Carolina.
At the same time, Tropical Storm Isaac’s path may include Puerto Rico and the American Virgin Islands by Saturday morning. In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Olivia is forecast to move over the Hawaiian Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday, and Super Typhoon Mangkhut is moving away from Guam.
USDA encourages those in the path of the storms to take precautions to protect the safety of their food and animals.
Tips to best protect food safety before losing power:
- Keep appliance thermometers in both the refrigerator and the freezer to ensure temperatures remain food safe during a power outage. Safe temperatures are 40°F or lower in the refrigerator, 0°F or lower in the freezer.
- Freeze water in small plastic storage bags or containers prior to a storm. These containers are small enough to fit around the food in the refrigerator and freezer to help keep food cold.
- Freeze refrigerated items, such as leftovers, milk and fresh meat and poultry that you may not need immediately—this helps keep them at a safe temperature longer.
- Consider getting 50 pounds of dry or block ice if a lengthy power outage is possible. This amount of ice should keep a fully-stocked 18-cubic-feet freezer cold for two days.
- Group foods together in the freezer—this ‘igloo’ effect helps the food stay cold longer.
- Keep a few days’ worth of ready-to-eat foods that do not require cooking or cooling.
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is urging everyone in the potential path of the hurricane to prepare now – not just for yourselves, but also for your pets and your livestock.
Protecting livestock during a disaster:
- Plan For Evacuation – Know how you will evacuate and where you will go. If it is not feasible to evacuate your livestock, be sure to provide adequate food and water that will last them until you can return, and a strong shelter.
- If you are planning to move livestock out of state, make sure to contact the State Veterinarian’s Office in the receiving state before you move any animals. You also may contact APHIS Veterinary Services state offices for information and assistance about protecting and moving livestock.
- Listen to Emergency Officials – Evacuate if asked to do so.
When major disasters strike, USDA has an emergency loan program that provides eligible farmers low-interest loans to help them recover from production and physical losses. USDA’s emergency loan program is triggered when a natural disaster is designated by the Secretary of Agriculture or a natural disaster or emergency is declared by the President under the Stafford Act. USDA also offers additional programs tailored to the needs of specific agricultural sectors to help producers weather the financial impacts of major disasters and rebuild their operations.
Helping producers weather financial impacts of disasters:
Livestock owners and contract growers who experience above normal livestock deaths due to specific weather events, as well as to disease or animal attacks, may qualify for assistance under USDA’s Livestock Indemnity Program.
Livestock, honeybee and farm-raised fish producers who suffer animal, feed, grazing and associated transportation cost losses due to an extreme weather event may qualify for assistance through USDA’s emergency assistance program tailored for their agricultural sectors. Producers who suffer losses to or are preventing from planting agricultural commodities not covered by federal crop insurance may be eligible for assistance under USDA’s Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Programs if the losses were due to natural disasters.
Helping operations recover after disasters:
USDA also can provide financial resources through its Environmental Quality Incentives Program to help with immediate needs and long-term support to help recover from natural disasters and conserve water resources.
Farmers and ranchers needing to rehabilitate farmland damaged by natural disasters can apply for assistance through USDA’s Emergency Conservation Program. USDA also has assistance available for eligible private forest landowners who need to restore forestland damaged by natural disasters through the Emergency Forest Restoration Program. USDA’s Emergency Watershed Protection Program also can help relieve imminent threats to life and property caused by flood, fires and other natural disasters that impair a watershed.
Orchardists and nursery tree growers may be eligible for assistance through USDA’s Tree Assistance Program to help replant or rehabilitate eligible trees, bushes, and vines damaged by natural disasters.
Producers with coverage through the Risk Management Agency (RMA) administered Federal crop insurance program should contact their crop insurance agent for issues regarding filing claims. Those who purchased crop insurance will be paid for covered losses. Producers should report crop damage within 72 hours of damage discovery and follow up in writing within 15 days. The Approved Insurance Providers (AIP), loss adjusters and agents are experienced and well trained in handling these types of events. As part of its commitment to delivering excellent customer service, RMA is working closely with AIPs that sell and service crop insurance policies to ensure enough loss adjusters will be available to process claims in the affected areas as quickly as possible. Please visit the RMA website – www.rma.usda.gov for more details.
Flo is slated to make a left turn post-landfall
Wednesday, September 12th, 2018
465
WTNT31 KNHC 121156
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018
…DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.4N 70.7W
ABOUT 530 MI…855 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…943 MB…27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 70.7 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the northwest is
forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday.
Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into
Friday, and move slowly through early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach
the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area on Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through tonight.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S.
coast. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers…9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear…6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet…6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach…4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border…4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River…2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…
Coastal North Carolina…20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches
South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina…5 to
10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states…3 to
6 inches, isolated 12 inches
This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and
significant river flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
