Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) • Area of thunderstorms a few hundred miles SW of Bermuda • Some development possible before the end of the week • Potential for a tropical depression is diminishing  • Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (30%) • Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (40%)
2 70%
1 40%
Disturbance 2 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) • A tropical wave between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles • Moving WNW at 15-20 mph • Well organized; a tropical depression could form at any time • In a few days, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it reaches the Lesser Antilles • Formation chance through 48 hours: High (70%) • Formation chance through 5 days: High (70%)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak trough of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda remain
disorganized.  Environmental conditions are still conducive for
some development before the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States.  The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized,
and a tropical depression could form at any time.  This disturbance
is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  However, in a few days,
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system
is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg