465
WTNT31 KNHC 121156
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

…DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.4N 70.7W
ABOUT 530 MI…855 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…943 MB…27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 70.7 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the northwest is
forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday.
Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into
Friday, and move slowly through early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach
the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is forecast through tonight.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S.
coast. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers…9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear…6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet…6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach…4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border…4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Coastal North Carolina…20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches
South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina…5 to
10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states…3 to
6 inches, isolated 12 inches

This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and
significant river flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday.  Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

GAO

2017 Hurricanes and Wildfires:

Initial Observations on the Federal Response and Key Recovery Challenges

GAO-18-472: Published: Sep 4, 2018. Publicly Released: Sep 4, 2018.

Document

Federal and state preparedness and coordination efforts prior to and after the 2017 hurricane and wildfire disasters facilitated the response in Texas, Florida, and California. Specifically, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and state emergency management officials implemented various preparedness actions prior to landfall of the hurricanes and during the wildfires—such as predeploying federal personnel to support response efforts; colocating federal, state, and local emergency managers; and pre-staging and delivery of commodities like food and water. Further, according to FEMA and state officials, preexisting coordination mechanisms and relationships also facilitated response efforts in each state. For example, FEMA and each state had conducted numerous emergency exercises in the years prior to these disasters and had developed relationships during response to prior disasters that led to accelerated decision-making during the 2017 disasters. Federal and state officials emphasized that there were certainly unprecedented challenges during these disasters—such as deploying a sufficient and adequately-trained FEMA disaster workforce—and lessons learned, but prior response coordination efforts helped to quickly and effectively resolve many of these challenges.

The federal government provided significant support to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in response to Hurricanes Irma and Maria, but faced numerous challenges that complicated response efforts. FEMA efforts in Puerto Rico alone were the largest and longest single response in the agency’s history. As of April 2018, FEMA had obligated over $12 billion for response and recovery for Hurricane Maria (see figure below) reflecting the scale and complexity of efforts given the widespread damage. FEMA tasked federal agencies with over 1,000 response mission assignments for Hurricanes Maria and Irma in the territories at a cost of over $5 billion, compared to about 400 such assignments for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma and the California wildfires combined. For example, FEMA assigned the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers the mission to install over 1,700 emergency electricity generators in Puerto Rico, compared to the 310 for the response to Hurricane Katrina.

Federal Emergency Management Agency Disaster Relief Fund Obligations and Expenditures for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and California Wildfires through April 30, 2018

Note: An obligation is a definite commitment that creates a legal liability of the government for the payment of goods and services ordered or received. An expenditure is an amount paid by federal agencies by cash or cash equivalent, during the fiscal year to liquidate government obligations.

Nevertheless, GAO found that FEMA faced a number of challenges that slowed and complicated its response efforts to Hurricane Maria, particularly in Puerto Rico. Many of these challenges were also highlighted in FEMA’s own 2017 hurricane after action report, including:

• the sequential and overlapping timing of the three hurricanes—with Maria being the last of the three—caused staffing shortages and required FEMA to shift staff to the territories that were already deployed to other disasters;

• logistical challenges complicated efforts to deploy federal resources and personnel quickly given the remote distance of both territories; and

• limited preparedness by the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for a Category 5 hurricane and incapacitation of local response functions due to widespread devastation and loss of power and communications led FEMA to assume response functions that territories would usually perform themselves.

The 2017 hurricanes and wildfires highlighted some longstanding issues and revealed other emerging response and recovery challenges. For example, the concurrent timing and scale of the disaster damages nationwide caused shortages in available debris removal contractors and delays in removing disaster debris—a key first step in recovery. In addition, FEMA’s available workforce was overwhelmed by the response needs. For example, at the height of FEMA workforce deployments in October 2017, 54 percent of staff were serving in a capacity in which they did not hold the title of “Qualified”—according to FEMA’s qualification system standards—a past challenge GAO has identified. FEMA officials noted that staff shortages, and lack of trained personnel with program expertise led to complications in its response efforts, particularly after Hurricane Maria.

Federal Disaster Workforce Deployed at the Height of 2017 Response Acivities

Further, federal, state, and local officials faced challenges finding temporary housing for disaster survivors given the extensive damage to available housing in each location. For example, given the widespread damage in Puerto Rico and lack of hotels and other temporary housing, FEMA transported survivors to the mainland United States to stay in hotels. FEMA also used new authorities and procedures to meet the need, such as providing Texas as much as $1 billion to manage its own housing program. However, this approach had not been used or tested in past disasters and state officials noted challenges in managing the program such as staffing shortfalls. State officials further noted challenges in coordinating with FEMA that led to delays in providing assistance to survivors. GAO will continue to monitor these programs.

Why GAO Did This Study

In 2017, four sequential disasters—hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and the California wildfires—created an unprecedented demand for federal disaster response and recovery resources. According to FEMA, 2017 included three of the top five costliest hurricanes on record.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated that the cumulative damages from weather and climate related disasters in the United States were over $300 billion in 2017 alone. As of June 2018, Congress had appropriated over $120 billion in supplemental funding for response and recovery related to the 2017 hurricanes and wildfires. Further, in October 2017, close to 14,000 federal employees were deployed in response to the disasters.

Given the scale and cost of these disasters, Congress and others have raised questions about the federal response and various recovery challenges that have arisen since the disasters. This report provides GAO’s observations on: (1) federal and state preparedness and response coordination for hurricanes Harvey and Irma in Texas and Florida, and the California wildfires; (2) federal preparedness for and response to hurricanes Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; and (3) existing and emerging disaster recovery challenges highlighted by these disasters.

GAO analyzed FEMA policies, procedures, guidance, and data specific to disaster response and recovery programs. GAO focused on the busiest period of disaster response activity for the federal government—August 2017 through January 2018, with select updates on recovery efforts and obtained updates through June 2018. In October and November 2017, GAO teams made site visits to hurricane damaged areas in Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. At these locations, GAO visited FEMA joint field operation locations and interviewed FEMA, Department of Defense, and other federal officials about response and recovery operations, visited disaster recovery centers, and observed damage. GAO also interviewed FEMA officials responsible for wildfire response and recovery efforts in California.

Additionally, GAO interviewed state and territorial emergency management officials or their designee in Texas, Florida, California, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as officials from eight cities and counties in Texas, Florida, and California (selected based on their proximity to the disaster impacted areas and their availability) to discuss their observations on the federal response in their respective jurisdictions. While the perspectives of these officials are not generalizable, they provided valuable insights into the federal response to the 2017 disasters.

This report includes 10 appendices that provide further details and data on federal response and recovery efforts. These areas cover key issues and challenges that GAO believes are critical for assessing the federal response and warrant continued Congressional and agency oversight during disaster recovery.

GAO is not making recommendations in this report, but has ongoing work that will address various response and recovery programs and challenges in more detail. GAO will make recommendations, as appropriate, once this work is completed.

In commenting on a draft of this report, DHS stated that the report highlighted the challenges of the complicated response and recovery efforts as well as provided insights into these efforts. DHS also noted that it is continuing to apply lessons learned from 2017 to improve its future program delivery and response efforts.

For more information, contact Christopher Currie at (404) 679-1875 or curriec@gao.gov.

The Atlantic basin was relatively quiet for much of August 2018, but September brought a surge in storm activity. On September 9, 2018, Florence, Isaac, and Helene were all churning up the North Atlantic. The trio of storms is visible in this image acquired by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite.

Category 4 Hurricane Florence was the most ominous for people in the United States. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect the slow-moving storm to reach the coast of the Carolinas on September 12 or 13, bringing a life-threatening storm surge, exceptionally heavy inland rains, and damaging winds. Though weakening, Category 1 Hurricane Isaac is on a path to cross the Lesser Antilles islands and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on September 13. Category 2 Hurricane Helene was strengthening, but is expected to veer northward into the open ocean.

The bright strips in the image are reflected sunlight, or “glint,” which can show up over ocean areas in the middle of each orbit.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens, using VIIRS data from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership. Caption by Adam Voiland.

Weather Channel

• Florence is now intensifying after regaining hurricane strength on Sunday.
• Rapid intensification into a major hurricane is expected by Monday night.
• A strike on the U.S. East Coast is increasingly likely.
• This may happen as soon as Thursday.
• Those near the East Coast should monitor closely and firm up their hurricane plans.
• Florence is generating swells that are affecting parts of the U.S. coastline.

442
WTNT31 KNHC 090843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

…FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 765 MI…1235 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 640 MI…1030 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB…29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today.  A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is expected to become a hurricane today and rapid
intensification is likely to begin by tonight.  Florence is forecast
to become a major hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

History

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUTlGjPCoQ8