Global & Disaster Medicine

Archive for the ‘Tropical cyclones’ Category

Chris is starting its climb along the Atlantic coastline

cone graphic

000
WTNT33 KNHC 091455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

…CHRIS MOVING LITTLE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…32.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was
located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 74.5 West. Chris has
been nearly stationary the past several hours, and little motion is
expected during the next day or so. A northeastward motion is
forecast to begin late Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to accelerate
northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday.

Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
However, strengthening is expected to begin by tonight and continue
for the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast to become a
hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 41002 located
just southwest of the center reported a sustained wind of 49 mph
(79 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF:  Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect
portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states
during the next few days.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.

 


BERYL BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON…

cone graphic


TS Maria in the Pacific


Tropical Disturbances in the Atlantic

Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) • Area of thunderstorms a few hundred miles SW of Bermuda • Some development possible before the end of the week • Potential for a tropical depression is diminishing  • Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (30%) • Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (40%)
2 70%
1 40%
Disturbance 2 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) • A tropical wave between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles • Moving WNW at 15-20 mph • Well organized; a tropical depression could form at any time • In a few days, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it reaches the Lesser Antilles • Formation chance through 48 hours: High (70%) • Formation chance through 5 days: High (70%)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak trough of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda remain
disorganized.  Environmental conditions are still conducive for
some development before the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States.  The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized,
and a tropical depression could form at any time.  This disturbance
is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  However, in a few days,
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system
is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 


Out in the Pacific…..


Tracking Bud


Tropical storm activity in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans


New research: The number of excess deaths related to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico is more than 70 times the official estimate

NEJM

“…..Using a representative, stratified sample, we surveyed 3299 randomly chosen households across Puerto Rico to produce an independent estimate of all-cause mortality after the hurricane. Respondents were asked about displacement, infrastructure loss, and causes of death. We calculated excess deaths by comparing our estimated post-hurricane mortality rate with official rates for the same period in 2016…..

From the survey data, we estimated a mortality rate of 14.3 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.8 to 18.9) per 1000 persons from September 20 through December 31, 2017. This rate yielded a total of 4645 excess deaths during this period (95% CI, 793 to 8498), equivalent to a 62% increase in the mortality rate as compared with the same period in 2016. However, this number is likely to be an underestimate because of survivor bias. The mortality rate remained high through the end of December 2017, and one third of the deaths were attributed to delayed or interrupted health care…..”

See the source image


NASA: 2 tropical cyclones (Sagar & Mekunu) barreled down on the Middle East.

Cyclone Duo Hits the Middle East

Within the span of one week, two tropical cyclones barreled down on the Middle East.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar was the first to hit, making landfall in Somalia on May 19, 2018. On that day, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired a natural-color image (above) of the storm. Maximum sustained winds reached 55 knots (65 miles or 100 kilometers per hour)—the equivalent of a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The storm delivered more than a year’s worth of rain to parts of the country, which has been coping with years of drought. According to Reliefweb, damage from Sagar’s floodwaters and wind displaced hundreds of thousands of people.

According to NOAA’s database of historical hurricane tracks, tropical cyclones are infrequent in this part of the Arabian Sea, and the region can go years without a storm. When they develop, they tend to occur in spring and autumn. It is less common for tropical cyclones to travel so far west into the Gulf of Aden. Check out this map to see the tracks of previous storms.

acquired May 23, 2018 download large image (10 MB, JPEG, 7200×9400)

Days after Sagar made landfall, a second tropical cyclone barreled across the Arabian Sea. The second image, acquired by MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite, shows Tropical Cyclone Mekunu on May 23, 2018. On that day, winds reached 65 knots (75 miles or 120 kilometers per hour)—the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane—and forecasters called for it to continue to strengthen.

Mekunu is not likely to travel as far west as Sagar. Instead, the storm is expected to move north-northwest and make landfall in Oman by about May 26.

NASA images by Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE/EOSDIS Rapid Response. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

Instrument(s):
Aqua – MODIS
Terra – MODIS

National Level Exercise (NLE) 2018 to examine the ability of all levels of government, private industry, and nongovernmental organizations to protect against, respond to, and recover from a major Mid-Atlantic hurricane.

FEMA

National Level Exercise

National Level Exercise (NLE) 2018

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) leads national-level exercises every two years. National Level Exercise (NLE) 2018 will examine the ability of all levels of government, private industry, and nongovernmental organizations to protect against, respond to, and recover from a major Mid-Atlantic hurricane. The scenario involves a major hurricane that makes landfall near Hampton Roads, Virginia, causing severe damage to residences, businesses, and critical infrastructure throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria last fall reinforced our need to prepare for hurricanes, and NLE 2018 provides a well-timed opportunity to apply lessons from those storms in advance of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1.

Get Involved

There are many ways for individuals, businesses, and community organizations to participate in NLE 2018 and get better prepared for hurricanes. If you live or do business in an area vulnerable to hurricanes, it is important that you understand your risk, develop a preparedness and mitigation plan, and take action. Find resources to prepare for hurricanes below. Fact Sheets can be downloaded from anywhere you see this icon   or by clicking on the hyperlink.

This section is Expanded. Click to CollapseFor Individuals

Threats from hurricanes include high winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, coastal and inland flooding, rip currents, and tornadoes. The heavy winds of hurricanes can cause damage or destroy homes, buildings, and roads, as well as cause power, water, and gas outages. Watch FEMA’s “When the Waves Swell” video to understand your hurricane risk, then learn how to take action below.

Get Alerts and WarningsGet Alerts and Warnings

Receiving timely information about weather conditions or other emergency events can make all the difference in knowing when to take action to be safe.

  • Download the FEMA App to learn what to do before, during, and after emergencies, and receive weather alerts from the National Weather Service for up to five different locations anywhere in the United States.
  • Read FEMA’s Know Your Alerts and Warnings guide.
  • Visit your local county emergency management website to learn more about what notifications are available in your community.

Create and Test a Family Communication PlanCreate and Test a Family Communication Plan

Make a plan today. Your family may not be together if a disaster strikes, so it is important to know which types of disasters could affect your area. Know how you’ll contact one another and reconnect if separated. Establish a family meeting place that’s familiar and easy to find.

Document and Insure Property

When a disaster strikes, having insurance for your home or business property is the best way to ensure you will have the necessary financial resources to help you repair, rebuild, or replace whatever is damaged.

  • Get started with FEMA’s Document and Insure Your Property guide.
  • Consider buying flood insurance. Individuals can purchase flood insurance through an insurance agent or an insurer participating in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). If your insurance agent does not sell flood insurance, you can contact the NFIP Referral Call Center at 1-800-427-4661 to request an agent referral.
  • Visit www.FloodSmart.gov to learn more about purchasing flood insurance and the National Flood Insurance Program.

Strengthen Your Financial PreparednessStrengthen Your Financial Preparedness

Know your disaster costs. Taking the time now to collect and secure personal financial, insurance, medical, and other records will give you peace of mind and, in the event of an emergency, will ensure that you have the documentation needed to start the recovery process without delay.

Get Trained

Minutes matter in a disaster, and if emergency responders aren’t nearby, you can be the help until help arrives. There are many ways to get involved in your community.

  • Visit ready.gov/until-help-arrives for online training and to find out what your role can be during disasters.
  • Contact your local emergency management office to find upcoming training, discussions, and events in your community.

Download the Individuals Fact Sheet

 

This section is Expanded. Click to CollapseFor Businesses

Preparing for hurricanes and developing a plan will increase the safety of employees and customers and help you remain in business after disaster strikes. Maintaining business continuity is important. When you are able to continue operations after a disaster, you also improve your community’s ability to recover.

Participate in National Level Exercise 2018

Over 200 organizations, including all levels of government, private businesses, and nonprofit organizations, will participate in NLE 2018. Private sector participants should focus their play on May 3 and May 8-10, 2018. Participation options are available for all levels of play and businesses of all sizes. Businesses can also participate through National, Regional, and State Business Emergency Operations Centers.

The functional and full-scale portions of NLE 2018 will occur between April 30 and May 11, 2018.

Private sector participants should focus their play on NBEOC call dates (May 2-4 and May 7-9) and targeted private sector play (May 7-9). Participants from the infrastructure sector are encouraged to focus their play on May 8.

  • Contact nle@fema.dhs.gov to learn more about your options for participating in NLE 2018.

NLE 2018 Private Sector Capabilities and Objectives

Private and infrastructure sector participants will focus on testing the following capabilities during NLE 2018:

  • Information Sharing: Test the use of a benchmarking system to self-assess information sharing situational capabilities based on the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Incident Management Information Sharing (IMIS) Capability Maturity Model (CMM), as well as the ability to provide updates to the community regarding the status of operations.
  • Request, Acquisition, and Movement of Resources: Test the ability to identify and coordinate delivery of resources from private-to-government, government-to-private, and private-to-private requests, as well as the ability to transport resources through waivers and exemptions.
  • Business Emergency Operations Center (BEOC) Capabilities: NLE 2018 will test and evaluate the coordination capabilities of State, Regional, and National BEOCs.

Private sector participants are invited to set their own exercise objectives as they align to one of the following three categories:

  • Organization-Led: The objective is specific to what an individual company or organization wishes to achieve during the exercise.
  • Market-Segment: The objective is specific to a group of organizations or companies, such as small businesses, telecommunications companies, healthcare networks, or electric utilities.
  • Cross-Sector: The objective is specific to a group of market segments or sectors and aligned to interdependencies between those markets and/or sectors.

Conduct an Exercise Internal to Your BusinessConduct an Exercise Internal to Your Business

Conduct an exercise on your own using the NLE 2018 Exercise Starter Kit. This starter kit is an “exercise in a box,” and includes exercise templates, a detailed scenario, discussion questions, and scene-setting videos to help your business prepare for hurricanes.

Get Your Business Hurricane ReadyGet Your Business Hurricane Ready

Significant portions of the United States are at risk for the effects of tropical storms and hurricanes. It is important that organizations throughout the country, including associations, businesses, and community groups, understand the risks and potential impacts and prepare accordingly.

Join the National Business Emergency Operations CenterJoin the National Business Emergency Operations Center

The National Business Emergency Operations Center (NBEOC) is FEMA’s virtual clearinghouse for two-way information sharing between public and private sector stakeholders in preparing for, responding to, or recovering from disasters. Participation in the NBEOC is completely voluntary and open to all members of the private sector with a national footprint.

Spread the Preparedness Message with Your Employees and Customers

Help spread the word by sharing hurricane preparedness products with your employees and customers.

  • Share hurricane preparedness resources like our How to Get Involved fact sheet, which covers how to get alerts, insure property, strengthen your financial preparedness, and more.
  • Visit www.ready.gov/hurricanes for more information to share with your audience.

Download the Private Sector and Infrastructure Fact Sheet

 

This section is Expanded. Click to CollapseFor Community Organizations

Preparing for hurricanes and developing a plan will increase the safety of your membership and help your organization remain open after disaster strikes.  When you are able to continue operations after a disaster, you also improve your community’s ability to recover.

Spread the Preparedness Message with Your Membership

Help spread the word to your membership, partners, and immediate community.

  • Share hurricane preparedness resources like our How to Get Involved fact sheet, which covers how to get alerts, insure property, strengthen your financial preparedness, and more.

Get Your Organization Hurricane Ready

Significant portions of the United States are at risk for the effects of tropical storms and hurricanes. It is important that organizations throughout the country understand the risks and potential impacts and prepare accordingly.

Engage with National Level Exercise 2018

Over 200 organizations, including all levels of government, private businesses, and nonprofit organizations, will participate in NLE 2018 between April 30 and May 11, 2018. Organizations of all sizes can participate by attending a national webinar on Hurricane Preparedness on Tuesday, May  8, 2018 from 2:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. EDT.

  • To RSVP for the webinar, e-mail Partnerships@fema.dhs.gov with “Hurricane Webinar” in the subject line.
  • You can also get involved by conducting an exercise on your own using the NLE 2018 Exercise Starter Kit. This starter kit is an “exercise in a box,” and includes exercise templates, a detailed scenario, discussion questions, and scene-setting videos to help your organization prepare for hurricane season.

Join the National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disasters (NVOAD)

National VOAD is an association of organizations that mitigate and alleviate the impact of disasters; provide a forum promoting cooperation, communication, coordination, and collaboration; and foster more effective delivery of services to communities affected by disaster.

Download the Community Organizations Fact Sheet

 

This section is Expanded. Click to CollapseFor Government

If your department or agency is not yet participating in NLE 2018 and is interested in joining, please contact nle@fema.dhs.gov to learn more about your options for participation.

This section is Expanded. Click to CollapseAbout the National Level Exercise

The functional and full-scale portions of NLE 2018 will occur in the first two weeks of May 2018, focused on thematic areas identified from ongoing real-world continuous improvement efforts. This provides a well-timed opportunity to apply lessons observed in advance of the 2018 hurricane season. The NLE as a whole should be viewed as a large exercise series running from January through the summer, which will include seminars, workshops, and tabletop exercises, as well as the functional exercise in May.

A number of local, state, and federal exercises have been integrated into NLE 2018 which include: Atlantic Fury FEMA Region III (DC, VA, MD, PA, DE, WV), Vigilant Guard 18-3 (Virginia National Guard Bureau), Vigilant Guard 18-4 (Maryland National Guard Bureau), Eagle Horizon (FEMA National Continuity Programs), Clear Path (U.S. Department of Energy), Ardent Sentry (U.S. Northern Command), Citadel Gale/HURREX (U.S. Navy), Fifth District Hurricane Exercise (U.S. Coast Guard), and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hurricane Exercise.

A common exercise scenario and control environment will bring together each of these components into one unified exercise.

This section is Expanded. Click to CollapseNLE 2018 Objectives

NLE 2018 consists of four overarching exercise objectives:

1. Pre-landfall Protective Actions:

Examine and validate the capabilities of federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial governments, as well as private industry, nongovernmental organizations, community organizations, and members of the public, to take coordinated and inclusive protective actions prior to a projected major hurricane landfall in accordance with applicable plans, policies, and procedures.

2. Sustained Response in Parallel with Recovery Planning: 

Demonstrate and assess the ability of federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial governments, in coordination with private sector, philanthropic, and nongovernmental partners, to conduct inclusive post-hurricane landfall response operations and simultaneously conduct inclusive recovery planning activities.

3. Continuity in a Natural Disaster: 

Demonstrate and assess the ability of federal and non-federal government organizations to implement continuity plans and perform essential functions appropriate for incident conditions to sustain National Essential Function (NEF) 6.

4. Power Outages and Critical Interdependencies: 

Examine and validate the capabilities of federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial governments to support the energy sector and synchronize efforts to manage the consequences of long-duration power outages and critical interdependencies.

Scenario

The NLE 2018 scenario will include a major hurricane that makes landfall near Hampton Roads, Virginia, causing severe damage to residences, businesses, and critical infrastructure throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. The scenario will include power outages and cascading effects to critical infrastructure systems, including impacts to communications, transportation, water, wastewater, and hospital systems.

This section is Expanded. Click to CollapsePromoting National Level Exercise 2018

NLE 2018 is helping to Build a Culture of Preparedness and to Ready the Nation for Catastrophic Disasters. All organizations are welcome to promote NLE 2018 and the National Flood Insurance Program by using customizable templates and information developed to assist in communicating the preparedness message to the community or your organization.

  • The National Flood Insurance Program Outreach Toolkit can be used to educate residents about the importance of preparing for a hurricane with flood insurance. The toolkit consists of key messages and templates that can be customized for specific communities or media markets.

This section is Expanded. Click to CollapseBackground

The National Preparedness Goal calls for a secure and resilient nation with the capabilities required across the whole community to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the threats and hazards that pose the greatest risk. To achieve the National Preparedness Goal, the National Preparedness System organizes actions to build, sustain, and deliver the core capabilities in greatest need of sustainment and improvement. As a key component of the National Preparedness System, the National Exercise Program (NEP) is the principal mechanism for examining and validating core capabilities nationwide across all preparedness mission areas. The NEP consists of a two-year, progressive cycle of selected exercises across the whole community anchored to a common set of strategic objectives that culminates in a biennial National Level Exercise. The National Level Exercise serves as the capstone event of the two-year NEP cycle.

The National Level Exercise is congressionally mandated in the Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006, which states that “the Administrator [of FEMA] shall periodically, but not less than biennially, perform national exercises . . . to test and evaluate the capability of Federal, State, Local, and Tribal governments to detect, disrupt, and prevent threatened or actual catastrophic acts of terrorism, especially those involving weapons of mass destruction,” and “to test and evaluate the readiness of Federal, State, local, and tribal governments to respond and recover in a coordinated and unified manner to catastrophic incidents.” (United States Code, Title 6, Chapter 2, Subchapter II, Part A, Section 748(b)(3).)

This section is Expanded. Click to CollapsePast National Level Exercises

Capstone 2016

Capstone Exercise 2016 examined authorities and capabilities needed to ensure our nation’s ability to prevent terrorist acts against the homeland, coordinate the response to a catastrophic incident, communicate to the American people, and continue performing essential government functions during a disaster. Capstone 2016 involved a series of five events. The exercise began with an analysis of threats originating abroad and then transitioned into a domestic crisis management and emergency response exercise. (Read the press release)

Capstone 2014

Capstone Exercise 2014 was a complex emergency preparedness exercise comprised of five distinct, but linked, component events. The Alaska Shield 2014 exercise, sponsored by the State of Alaska to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the 1964 Great Alaskan Earthquake, provided the central scenario elements: significant damage from both the quake and the tsunami it triggers affect the greater Pacific Northwest. Capstone Exercise 2014 included several preparedness activities sponsored by other departments and agencies and was designed to educate and prepare the whole community for complex, large-scale disasters and emergencies.

National Level Exercise 2012

NLE 2012 was a series of exercise events that examined the ability of the United States to execute a coordinated response to a series of significant cyber incidents. NLE 2012 emphasized the shared responsibility among all levels of government, the private sector, and the international community to secure cyber networks and coordinate response and recovery actions. NLE 2012 was focused on examining four major themes: planning and implementation of the draft National Cyber Incident Response Plan (NCIRP), coordination among governmental entities, information sharing, and decision making.

 

Last Updated:
04/24/2018 – 13:41

Categories

Recent Posts

Archives

Admin