Global & Disaster Medicine

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FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY

442
WTNT31 KNHC 090843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

…FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY…
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SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 765 MI…1235 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 640 MI…1030 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB…29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today.  A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is expected to become a hurricane today and rapid
intensification is likely to begin by tonight.  Florence is forecast
to become a major hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN

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Tropical Depression Gordon

Storm QPF


North Carolina: State of emergency declared in the face of the Florence threat

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[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]

[Key Messages]


Olivia

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TS Florence

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Gordon: The potential for 6-10″ of rain and a storm surge of 2-4 feet in some spots

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Southeast sector loop


Florence

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Norman

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Olivia

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