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Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
600 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

…600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE…
…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS…

A National Ocean Service station in Vaca Key recently reported
sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph
(94 km/h). Marathon recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph
(69 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT…2200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.4N 80.7W
ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Onderlinde

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apQGPBN7-V4

Counties under evacuation

NY Times

https://nyti.ms/2xbfPNl

https://static01.nyt.com/video/players/offsite/index.html?videoId=100000005411925

“…..At least 20 people were confirmed dead by Friday night, when Irma made landfall in Cuba as a Category 5, lashing the island’s northern coast with a direct hit.

The hurricane was downgraded to Category 4 around 5 a.m. and is expected to reach South Florida by Saturday afternoon. About 5.6 million people — more than a quarter of the state’s population — have been ordered to leave their homes….”

Washington Post

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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Katia Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017

…KATIA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS…
…HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.1N 97.7W
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM S OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM WNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Katia
was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 97.7 West. Katia is
moving toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and it is
expected to continue drifting toward the west-southwest until
dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Katia is expected to dissipate over the mountains of
Mexico later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and
Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi,
western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San
Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast should continue to
decrease as the center dissipates and winds subside.

SURF: Swells generated by Katia will begin to decrease along the
coast of southeastern Mexico today. These swells may still cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

Washington Post

CNN

“…..

000
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TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

…DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 150
MPH WINDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.6N 57.0W
ABOUT 320 MI…515 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…937 MB…27.67 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the
hurricane conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36
hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Irma
will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma within the hour.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day
or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide…

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix…4 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico…2 to 4 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by tonight, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also
possible.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across
the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands

during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

On August 31, 2017, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of the Texas coast and the Houston metropolitan area. Note the brown rivers and bays, full of flood water from Hurricane Harvey. Along the coast, muddy, sediment-laden waters from inland pour into a Gulf of Mexico that also was churned up by the relentless storm.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using data from the Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE). Caption by Michael Carlowicz.

Instrument(s):

Terra – MODIS